The other day, Elizabeth Vargas of ABC News closed the broadcast with an observation on the recent Iraqi elections. She said they had talked to a voter and asked him if he was Sunni, Shiite, or Kurd. The man answered, “I’m Iraqi.” I heard this same anecdote the last election; the quote had a certain poignancy then, but the story is beginning to sound like propaganda now. 

The war was justified with propaganda, and it continues. Three years ago the geniuses in the Bush Administration said Iraqis would lay flowers at our feet, the troops would be home in six months, and democracy wasn’t far behind. On Sunday, President Bush said we are winning the war, we must see it through, and – by the way – Saddam Hussein had no weapons of mass destruction. 

I think the average Iraqi is hoping their voting will produce a better country. I’m not sure why there is so much hope invested by supporters of President Bush. They’ve allowed the security situation to get out of hand. The elections are not a predictor of future success considering the present circumstances in Iraq, circumstances that have given rise to more terrorists, not fewer.

Republicans trot out America’s example of elections. Yet, the Founding Fathers didn’t consider the widespread right to vote necessary in establishing our democracy. They believed a privileged few should come between the people and the elected and created an electoral college. In the early nineteenth century, only white male land owners had the right to vote in many states. And, it wasn’t until this century that women and blacks had full voting rights. Why all this emphasis on voting? It makes for feel-good TV images, that’s why.

What leaders emerge, whether they’re imbued with democracy or not, is what’s important to watch. Not only will success in Iraq hinge on whether a majority of those Iraqis elected are for a true democracy, but the elected leaders must work for it as well. They must visibly and demonstrably advocate democratic ideals without appearing to be America’s puppets.

I don’t see that happening. Clerics, former Baathists, and wheeler-dealers out for personal financial gain are maneuvering for every advantage. There’s the possibility that Iran will start meddling overtly, looking for an opportunity to break off the Shiite south.

Too many old hostilities among the various factions are just below the surface. Considering all the players, this vote has an element of paying lip service to democracy. Is civil war on the horizon? It would take unprecedented restraint on the part of the Shiites not to retaliate against the Sunnis at some point.

The solution? There may not be one until old scores are settled. And it isn’t going to be America’s solution anyway, no matter how long the right-wing pundits and other supporters of Bush say we should stay.

Contact Craig K. Allen